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PREDICTION OF FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST CHINA BASED ON IMPROVED PSO-PLS
  Revised:April 04, 2018
KeyWords:precipitation prediction  particle swarm optimization  partial least squares regression  flood season precipitation of Southwest China
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Author NameAffiliationE-mail
WANG Zhi-yi 1. College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210001 China
2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 China 
wangzhiyinuist@163.com 
HU Bang-hui   
YANG Xiu-qun   
WANG Xue-zhong   
WANG Ju   
HUANG Hong   
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Abstract:
      In order to achieve the best predictive effect of the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression model, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to automatically filter the optimal subset of a set of candidate factors of PLS regression model in this study. An improved version of the Particle Swarm Optimization-Partial Least Squares (PSO-PLS) regression model is applied to the station data of precipitation in Southwest China during flood season. Using the PSO-PLS regression method, the prediction of flood season precipitation in Southwest China has been studied. By introducing the precipitation period series of the mean generating function (MGF) extension as an alternative factor, the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model was also build up to improve the prediction results. Randomly selected 10%, 20%, 30% of the modeling samples were used as a test trial; random cross validation was conducted on the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model. The results show that the accuracy of PSO-PLS regression model and the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model are better than that of the traditional PLS regression model. The training results of the three prediction models with regard to the regional and single station precipitation are considerable, whereas the forecast results indicate that the PSO-PLS regression method and the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression method are much better than the traditional PLS regression method. The MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model has the best forecast performance on precipitation anomaly during the flood season in the southwest of China among three models. The average precipitation (PS score) of 36 stations is 74.7. With the increase of the number of modeling samples, the PS score remained stable. This shows that the PSO algorithm is objective and stable. The MGF improved PSO-PLS regression prediction model is also showed to have good prediction stability and ability.
DOI:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.02.005
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