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A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD
  Revised:November 06, 2017
KeyWords:typhoon path  real-time correction  ensemble forecast  track errors
Fund:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
GUO Rong 1. Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 China; 2. Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai 200030 China  
QI Liang-bo   
GE Qian-qian   
WENG Yong-yuan  coffey58@163.com 
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Abstract:
      Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36h.
DOI:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.004
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